1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years

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Subject: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years
  This news does not bode well for Canada´s economy. Jobs (re: skilled immigrants) likely to remain difficult in foreseeable future..


Feb. 13, 2009
Fundamental Outlook for Canadian Dollar: Bearish

- Canada produces its first trade deficit since 1976
- Housing starts unsurprisingly fall further through housing recession
- (From last week) Economy Sheds 129 Thousand Jobs, The Largest Loss In Over 30 Years

Canada?s first trade deficit in over 30 years helped pushed the domestic currency lower against its US namesake, while sharp drops in Crude Oil prices likewise added downward pressure on the commodity price-sensitive currency. Fundamental sentiment for the Canadian Dollar certainly took a hit through the week?s developments; Canada remains the most trade-dependent country in our G10 currency universe, and a sharp deterioration in external demand for Canadian production bodes poorly for domestic industry.

(in reply to: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years)
It is clear we will not have a healthy economy until the US can get their S&*t together.

We are showing the effects of the US recession. Canada is still buying but the US (our biggest trading partner) is not. Our high dollar last year really messed with things.

Now that the dollar has fallen, things seem to be picking up a little bit. Those who are still employed have stopped some of their panic and are taking advantage of the new federal tax credits for home improvements. My strata decided this week to spend $165,000 on new carpets and fresh paint in our common areas. Part of the timing motivation was to take advantage of the new tax credits, agressive pricing and to do our bit to get the economy going. if others think the same as owners in our building, perhaps things will not be as bleak. Today´s paper is suggesting Vancouver may escape the worst of the recession as a result of the Olympics. That would certainly be nice news. Big ticket purchases are way down. Small stuff is still doing OK. The chocolate business is still booming!!!

Heard last night from a friend who is in the car leasing business. The company wrote 160 deals in BC in January. Ontario wrote 35 with 4-5 times the population. That blew me away. (almost as much as the Balwant story!)

(in reply to: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years)
You two if I did not like U both I would stop at nothing to rip out all of your negative thinking.

What about Saskatchewan that is hiring foreign worker by the plane load. One province that will have considerable growth in 2009.

Richard USA is Canada´s biggest trading partner of course our exports went down. Do you right off the United States of America with your Lincoln in charge Richard?????

The stimulus package just got signed.

Recessions come and go and yes this is a huge recession but come on.

Buy America stop foreign workers come on!

A friend of mine bought a brand new townhouse for 10,000 then it was advertised for in October 1 2007 not a huge drop. Some people are dreaming like you that the economy will get far worse and prices drop even lower but they will not.

Since when do listen to Lou Dobbs Sharon?


(in reply to: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years)
Sharon case in point Balwant might of made money.

Worse example was one of my clients waiting four years for his H&C and three year and a half years to get a decision on his PRRA against my advice and finally submitted his In-Land spousal and immediately CIC rendered a negative decision on his PRRA.

The client slipped ion the ice at GTEC and I got his removal deferred. There is nothing that can be done except a Federal court appeal or go home and submit an outside of Canada spousal since he has been living with his wife for four years as CL and Married.

A Consultant called me asking for a file but would not say which client. I know the Father but the son is the one that sold a pie in the sky dream to my former client.

Taking money from desperate panicking people when there is nothing you can legally do to keep them in the country is worse but then again I have never been to Guyana!


(in reply to: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years)
yup, decent news coming out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Gotta love Pottash!

House prices are an interesting thing too. Our sales are waaaay down (like 50%) but the prices are down from their peak by about 8-10%. Everyone has been saying - sit tight! and then they are shocked if people actually sit tight!

Development permits have dried up in Vancouver. No new building in the planning system. (I lie... I was told there is 1 by the city budget director on Wednesday) City is trying like crazy to slash their budget to compensate for the lost revenue and keep property taxes from increasing in the double digit figures. If development permits are non-existent, the current inventory will slowly get absorbed and we will see product shortages again. We still have a influx of people into the city and they have to live somewhere. There is also a moratorium on conversions of commercial to residential property so I suspect our real estate prices will rebound in the next 2-3 years. To be honest, we needed things to slow down. Get rid of the flippers and allow people some appropriate time to consider their purchase. I am hoping this stall in the market will have the industry turn its attention to rental and affordable housing instead of the bit ticket product they have been turning out. We have to get affordable housing for our low to middle income workforce so they are not commuting an hour a day in each direction.

Our situation is nothing like what I have been seeing on the tube where prices are down by 40-50% in some places. They could not replace some of those houses for the prices that are being shown.

(in reply to: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years)
Canada will keep building deficit for years to come (3-4). I hope it won´t be back breaking... but will in 10s of billions. But there are no efforts to stimulate small industry or anything like that. We keep hoping the US will pick up and cut us some slack.... SLAVEMINDS, what can I say.
(in reply to: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years)
Not negative thinking, Roy, just realistic. This is not the Land of Oz anymore, as the world is in a major economic slump. Immigrants need to know what to expect, and that it´s no longer a cakewalk that for some it used to be. We´re seeing plane loads of immigrants turning around and heading home - from both Canada and the U.S., after severe disappointment at job prospects in their professions.

Oh yeah I forgot, Saskatchewan is waiting - if you want to live in an arid, semi-arctic, featureless tundra. Ok, I´m being unjust and cruel. But most professionals want to be in a civilized larger city where the job prospects are plentiful and varied. Plus they want to enjoy the variety and choices of life that a larger metropolis provides.

Yep, he´s our Abraham Lincoln alright. By the way, he´ll be up your way (actually Ottawa) this Thursday, and I hope CBC provides full coverage. But for now he´s returned home for a few days in our neck of the woods, at his Hyde Park residence. The Chicago south side loves the attention.

(in reply to: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years)
We are a bit amazed at the smugness that folks in this area seem to have over the economic slowdown in the US. There seems to be a general sense that it´s a US problem and that Canada will be essentially immune, I guess because things are reasonably good right now in this tiny corner of the country (for the first time in 100 years, mind you, and "reasonably good" is very, very subjective). Because of my husband´s job we have a peek into the mindset into government perspective, and it rather seems to us that they are in total denial.

I must say again that this little corner is vastly different than urban areas, although I don´t think it´s so different than other smaller more rural areas (most of Canada). It is very difficult from here gauge what the rest of the country must be like right now, never mind the actual situation in the US. It all seems a world away.

(in reply to: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years)
Let´s face the facts this current GLOBAL situation was caused by GREED!

The Banking system in many countries other then Canada loaned money to people to buy houses with the intention of expecting them to fail. Then the bank takes the house back and flips it for a tidy profit.

Wannabe for decades in Canada if you wanted to start a business or you had an invention to get seed money it was always easier to get it from US Banks. Fellow Canadian´s complained and complained about our banks only wanting to loan you money if you had plenty of money. Now some have taken solace or believed the spin Doctors (Canadian Politicians) as to Canada´s position.


Richard have never been to Saskatchewan and have no desire to go there and not offended. Many years back my brother drove out west and turned around to film a corner in the highway they were sooooo bored.

Richard I remember the seventies when house prices went up and up and up and up and then the bubble burst. We came back from that recession in Canada and we will overcome this one. I remember the Trade deficit then too.

Regardless whether your rich, poor, employed, unemployed or on an Island lost in the Pacific mankind adapts. Bill Clinton fixed the mess that G. Bush left and Barack will fix the mess that G. W. left him. There will be different opportunities forthcoming.

Since I´m 18 I have seen several recessions come and go and this one will go sooner or maybe later. Is every thing rosy, not really but...

When things start to turn around a new immigrant who is a Financial Manager (example) who is in Canada will get out of the starting gate much faster then one not even yet in the country yet.


I saw on a local Ottawa TV channel their cities Drug Dealers are leaving Alberta and returning to Ottawa.

Things must be bad out there in AB OR Lou Dobbs is getting to those Drug Dealers! LOL


(in reply to: 1st Canadian Trade Deficit in 30 Years)
2 points.

I have also had my fair share of recessions and I submit this one is different simply because it is global rather than country specific. Personally, I don´t believe for a second that the stimulus package will be nearly enough or happen fast enough to make any significant impact - then what. That reality makes me very nervous. We are going to need to fight our way out of this. It will take time (more than we think) and layoffs and call backs often come late in both sides of the cycle. I don´t think we are finished with the layoffs yet.

Sometimes those little small towns are the best place to be. No reliance on 1 major employer to keep things afloat.

Alberta does not need to watch Lou Dobbs. All they need is the disposable cash to dry up in their pockets.

News reported yesterday that Valentines day spending was way down. Average occassion purchase - $34 and 50% of the population did nothing at all!

If you have people walking away from mortages so they can come back and buy that same house from the bank 3 months later for 50% less... how long do you think this is going to go on? A long time. That is the latest challenge. There are so many forclosures, anyone that can still make their payments are wondering why bother - especially when the house next door is now selling for almost half the price. Makes sense to take your chances, walk away and buy back in to the market at a lower rate.

I think we are far from done yet.

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